Brazil: Economic and political outline

Economic Overview

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Brazil is the world's thirteenth largest economy. The country is still working on rebuilding itself after the recession that happened eight years ago, when the economy contracted by almost 7%. Since then, Brazil hasn’t been able to grow at the same pace it was used to during the decade before the recession hit. However, the Brazilian economy has been experiencing a slow but steady recovery in recent years. In 2022, GDP grew by an estimated 2.8%, mainly driven household consumption, private investment, and exports. South America's largest economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in the coming years, with the IMF predicting a GDP growth of 1% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024.

In 2022, inflation rate reached an estimated 9.4%, surpassing the Central Bank's target of 3.5% and its tolerance band of 5% - and salaries haven't followed. However, inflation is expected to decrease to 4.7% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024. The relatively high inflation rate and tighter credit conditions weakened household consumption in 2022. However, the Brazilian government claims the worst for the economy is already behind. In 2022, government debt decreased to 88.2%, and is expected to remain stable over the next two years at 88.9% in 2023 and 90.6% in 2024. The government budget balance registered a deficit of 6.5% in 2022, a rate which is expected to slightly increase to 7.5% in 2023, before decreasing to 6.8% in 2024. Although the pandemic has significantly impacted the Brazilian economy, the country has been recovering, following the implementation of the government measures to counteract the resulting economic crisis. Overall, Brazil's counter-cyclical packages in light of the pandemic have been effective in boosting economic activity, which has been gradually recovering.

The unemployment rate in Brazil decreased in 2022, reaching an expected 9.8%, as the country recovered from the impacts of the pandemic. However, the government believes that the real figures are significantly higher, as an official unemployment survey shows that around 32 million people are under-utilised - meaning that they are either not working or working less than they could. Additionally, even those who are employed, often have informal jobs. In fact, the government estimates that 39.3 million people, or 41.6% of the country's employed work force, have informal jobs. The IMF expects that the unemployment rate will slightly decrease to 9.5% in 2023 and remain stable in 2024, especially as the services sector continues to recover from the aftermath of the pandemic and household consumption increases as inflation reduces. Furthermore, the country continues to face social issues and has one of the highest levels of inequality in the world, with high disparities between the country's regions. Even though Brazil has lifted 28 million people out of poverty in the last 15 years, 10% of the population still live in poverty, while the country's richest 5% have the same income as the remaining 95% of the population.

Main Sectors of Industry

Brazil has abundant natural resources and a relatively diversified economy. The country is the world's largest producer of coffee, sugar cane and oranges, and is one of the world’s largest producers of soya. With forests covering half of the country and the world’s largest rain forest, Brazil is the world’s fourth largest exporter of timber. Additionally, Brazil is home to the world’s largest commercial livestock heard. The country also attracts many multi-national groups in the food and bio-fuels industries. Still, even though agriculture represents 40.1% of exports, it contributes relatively little to the GDP (6.9%) and only employs 9.1% of the population. Moreover, in 2022, the country was hit by a drought that impacted the harvests of major crops, especially corn, soya, and sugar.

Brazil is also a large industrial power, and has benefited greatly from its mineral ore wealth. The country is the world’s second largest exporter of iron, and one of the world’s main producers of aluminium and coal. As an oil producer, Brazil is aiming to become energy independent in the near future, with reserves that could make it one of the top five oil producers in the world. Furthermore, the country is increasingly asserting itself in the textile, aeronautics, pharmaceutical, automobile, steel and chemical industry sectors. Many of the world’s large automobile manufacturers have set up production plants in Brazil. The industry sector contributes 18.9% to the GDP and employs 20% of the population. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the country's industrial sector has been recovering from the impacts of the pandemic, but production is still below pre-covid levels. While some industries, such as those of capital goods and durable goods, grew in 2022, the industrial sector as a whole was still impacted by tighter monetary policies and high interest rates.

The service sector represents 59.4% of Brazilian GDP and employs 70.9% of the active workforce. In recent years, the country has embarked on the production of high added-value services, especially in the fields of aeronautics and telecommunications. Tourism has also been on the rise in recent years, making it an important segment of the sector. Even though the services sector was hit the hardest during the pandemic, it showed a significant recovery in 2022, with growth reaching pre-pandemic levels. The sector's recovery was mainly driven by services to families, information and communication, and transport, as well as a gentle bounce of the tourism industry.

Source: World Bank, Latest available data.

Indicator of Economic Freedom

Score:

53,4/100

World Rank:

143

Regional Rank:

24

Business environment ranking

Score:

6.26/10

World Rank:

51/82

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2021-2025

Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries

Official list of ministries and their links
Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA)
Ministry of Infrastructure
Ministry of Foreign Relations (MRE)

Statistical Office

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)

Central Bank

Brazilian Central Bank

Stock Exchange

São Paulo Stock Exchange

Other Useful Resources

Integrated Development Institute of Minas Gerais (INDI)

Main Online Newspapers

Folha de São Paulo
Estado de São Paulo
O Globo
G1
Valor Econômico
Info Money
Jornal do Brasil

Economic Portals

Economic Portal- Brazil

Political Outline

Current Political Leaders

President: Luiz Inácio LULA da Silva (since 1 January 2023) - the president is both Chief of State and Head of Government
Vice President: Geraldo ALCKMIN (since January 1, 2023)

Next Election Dates

Presidential: October 2026
Federal Senate (for one-third of Senate seats) and Chamber of Deputies: October 2026

Current Political Context

In October 2022, Brazilian voters went to the polls to choose between two polarising candidates in the country's presidential elections. The president at the time, Jair Bolsonaro, was running for reelection against former-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, one of the most popular leaders in Brazilian history. The far-right candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, had been facing a significant decrease in popularity and shrinking approval ratings, mainly due to his government's management of the pandemic and controversial decisions made throughout his mandate, such as cutting funding for federal education and relaxing gun ownership laws. His opponent in the polls, Lula, had served two terms as president between 2003 and 2010, and was later imprisoned on corruption charges, although his conviction was subsequently annulled. The left-wing leader, with its roots in the labour union movement, continues to be a divisive figure in Brazilian politics, as his image is associated with both the economic boom that lifted tens of millions of Brazilians out of poverty during his mandates and the corruption charges he faced afterwards. Still, his campaign quickly gained momentum and Lula won the polls in October 2022, with 50.90% of the votes (against Bolsonaro's 49.10%). After Bolsonaro’s narrow electoral defeat, however, many of his supporters demanded a military coup and the abolishment of democracy in the country, a frequent component of many right-wing demonstrations in Brazil. In the first week of 2023, one week after Lula had been sworn in as president, about four thousand people stormed the country's capital, Brasília, and occupied and damaged government and judiciary buildings, including Congress, the Presidential Palace, and the Supreme Federal Court. Nevertheless, the authorities quickly controlled the situation and several arrests were made.

Main Political Parties

About two dozen political parties are represented in the Brazilian National Congress. Parties typically group together to form coalition governments. However, politicians often change parties, which has led to weak party discipline.

The main parties by number of seats in Congress are:

- Social Liberal Party (PSL): far-right, conservative, nationalist, militarist, liberal, anti-communism, anti-feminism, anti-LGBTQI+, populist.
- The Worker's Party (PT): centre-left, social democratic. Party with the highest number of elected representatives throughout the country since 2003.
- The Liberal Party (PL): formerly known as the Party of the Republic (PR). Centre-right to right, liberal, conservative, Christian democracy.
- The Progressive Party (PP): right-wing, nationalist, conservative.
- Social Democratic Party (PSD): big-tent party, centrist, liberal, Christian democracy.
- The Democratic Movement Party (MDB): big-tent party, centrist, liberal, conservative.
- The Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB): centre, social-democratic, liberal, conservative.
- The Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB): centre-left to left-wing, social-democratic, economic nationalism, state interventionism.
- Republicans: right-wing, conservative, Christian democracy.
- The Democrats (DEM): centre-right to right-wing, conservative, liberal, Christian democracy.
- Democratic Labour Party (PDT): centre-left, social-democratic, labourism.
- Solidarity (SDD): left-wing, social-democratic, labourism.
- Social Christian Party (PSC): right-wing to far-right, conservative, Christian democracy.
- Podemos (PODE): centre-right to right, nationalist, populist.
- Republican Party of the Social Order (PROS): centre-left, liberal, social-democratic, Christian democracy.
- Brazilian Labour Party (PTB): right-wing to far-right, social conservatism, Brazilian nationalism, right-wing populism.
- Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL): left-wing to far-left, social-democratic, anti-capitalist, environmentalist.
- Forward (Avante): centre, Third Way, populism.
- New Party (NOVO): centre-right to right-wing, liberalism.
- Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB): left-wing, Communism, Marxism–Leninism.
- Citizenship (Cidadania): centre to centre-left, social liberalism, Third Way.
- Patriot (Patriota): right-wing to far-right, social conservatism, economic liberalism, militarism.
- Green Party (PV): centre to centre-left, social-democratic, environmentalist, green politics.
- Sustainability Network (REDE): centre to centre-left, green politics, progressivism, environmentalism.

Type of State

Brazil is a federal presidential republic. The Brazilian constitution gives extensive powers to the government.

Executive Power

The President is both Head of State and Government. He or she holds executive power and appoints the Council of Ministers. The President and Vice-president are elected by universal suffrage for a four year term, with the possibility of re-election for a second successive term.

Legislative Power

The legislative power is bicameral. The National Congress is made up of two houses: the Senate (upper house) and the Chamber of Deputies (lower house). The Senate is comprised of 81 members (three members for each of the 26 states and the Federal District of Brasília), each elected on a majority basis for eight-year terms, with one-third and two-thirds of the membership elected alternatively every four years. The Chamber of Deputies is comprised of 513 members, with seats allocated according to proportional representation, elected every four years for a four-year term. There are also legislatures and administrations at the state level in each of Brazil’s 26 states and in the Federal District.

Indicator of Freedom of the Press

World Rank:

111/180

Indicator of Political Freedom

Ranking:

Free

Political Freedom:

2/7

Civil Liberties:

3/7

Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House

COVID-19 Country Response

COVID-19 epidemic evolution

To find out about the latest status of the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and the most up-to-date statistics on the COVID-19 disease in Brazil, please visit the website of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The agency provides a daily epidemiological update, which includes key national figures.
For the international outlook you can consult the latest situation reports published by the World Health Organisation as well as the global daily statistics on the coronavirus pandemic evolution including data on confirmed cases and deaths by country.

Sanitary measures

To find out about the latest public health situation in Brazil and the current sanitary measures in vigour, please consult the dedicated pages on the website of the Ministry of Health.

Travel restrictions

The COVID-19 situation, including the spread of new variants, evolves rapidly and differs from country to country. All travelers need to pay close attention to the conditions at their destination before traveling. Regularly updated information for all countries with regards to Covid-19 related travel restrictions in place including entry regulations, flight bans, test requirements and quarantine is available on TravelDoc Infopage.
It is also highly recommended to consult COVID-19 Travel Regulations Map provided and updated on the daily basis by IATA.
The US government website of Centers of Disease Control and Prevention provides COVID-19 Travel Recommendations by Destination.
The UK Foreign travel advice also provides travelling abroad advice for all countries, including the latest information on coronavirus, safety and security, entry requirements and travel warnings.

Import & export restrictions

For the information on all the measures applicable to movement of goods during the period of sanitary emergency due to the COVID-19 outbreak (including eventual restrictions on imports and exports, if applicable), please consult the portal of the Brazilian Ministry of Economy, as well as the customs authority website.
For a general overview of trade restrictions due to COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the section dedicated to Brazil on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage.

Economic recovery plan

For the information on the economic recovery scheme put in place by the Brazilian government to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian economy, please visit the website of the Brazilian Ministry of the Economy (in Portuguese). Further details in English are available on the website of KPMG.
For the general overview of the key economic policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak (fiscal, monetary and macroeconomic) taken by the Brazilian government to limit the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the section dedicated to Brazil in the IMF’s Policy Tracker platform.

Support plan for businesses

For the information on the local business support scheme established by the Brazilian government to help small and medium-sized companies to deal with the economic impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on their activity, please consult the dedicated pages on the website of the Brazilian Ministry of Economy, as well as the portal of the National Development Bank (BNDES).
For a general overview of international SME support policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak refer to the OECD's SME Covid-19 Policy Responses document.

Support plan for exporters

To find out about the support plan for exporters put in place by the Brazilian government, please consult the Brazilian Ministry of the Economy website. Further information can be sourced on the official governmental portal and on the FIESP website.